The main types of platform
Prediction markets include regulated US exchanges, decentralized platforms with international users, and play-money sites. Your choice depends on where you live, how much risk you're comfortable with, and which events you want to forecast.
1. Polymarket: Decentralized trading
Polymarket International offers blockchain-based prediction markets with non-custodial trading. Polymarket US is a separate, CFTC-regulated exchange.
- It offers markets on politics, culture, and other events. Liquidity and fees vary by market.
- US users cannot trade on Polymarket International. Check the separate eligibility rules for Polymarket US and understand wallet security before using the international platform.
- It suits people who trade politics in volume and are comfortable using crypto.
2. Kalshi: A regulated US exchange
Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the CFTC. It lets US residents trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
- It is regulated in the US and supports direct bank deposits and withdrawals.
- Identity verification is required. Check the current market catalogue, eligibility rules, and fee schedule before opening an account.
- It suits US traders who want to use a regulated exchange.
3. PredictIt: Political forecasting
PredictIt focuses on political event contracts. Its trading rules set eligibility requirements and position limits; check the current terms before trading.
- Its community makes it a useful place to follow sentiment about US politics.
- Read the current fee schedule and position limits in PredictIt’s trading guide. Older descriptions of withdrawal fees and limits may no longer apply.
- It suits casual political followers and data scientists.
Fees and access
| Platform | Type | US access | Fees | Main topics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Decentralized | International: no; separate US exchange | Varies by market | Politics, crypto, world events |
| Kalshi | Regulated exchange | Yes | Variable | Economics, policy, weather |
| PredictIt | Political event contracts | Yes | See current fee schedule | US politics |
| Manifold Markets | Play money / social | Yes | See mana fees and rules | Any topic (user-created) |
New platforms and social markets
Automated market makers (AMMs) use liquidity pools to quote prices. They can support trading without a matching order from another trader, but their prices still depend on available liquidity.
Social platforms such as Manifold Markets focus on community participation and forecasting accuracy. They give new forecasters a place to practice before trading with real money.
Questions to ask before choosing
- Does the platform legally accept users from your country?
- Does it have markets on topics you know well?
- Can you buy and sell positions at fair prices?
- How much will you pay in fees?
- Who controls your funds: a smart contract or a company?
Sources and further reading
This guide compares market mechanics, access, fees, and settlement rules. Check the linked official documents for current terms before trading.
- Polymarket: US and international platforms
- Polymarket: fees
- CFTC: Kalshi exchange registration
- Kalshi: fees
- PredictIt: trading rules and fees
- Manifold Markets: mana, fees, and market rules
Read next: How prediction markets work · Trading and risk management · Regulation and technology